July 2026
Featuring
Chris Galeski, Wealth Advisor and Partner, Morton Wealth
Meghan Pinchuk, Chief Investment Officer and Partner, Morton Wealth
Everyone has been waiting for rates to come down.
It has not happened. And on this week's Financial Commute, Chris Galeski and Chief Investment Officer Meghan Pinchuk explain why the Fed's new chair is holding firm, what energy prices and the war in Iran have to do with your portfolio, and why the national debt makes this moment more complicated than the headlines suggest.
They also get into the practical side: how to think about inflation as a slow tax on cash, why gold has held its value for over a century, and the one mistake a lot of people are making right now.
If you have been making any financial decisions based on the assumption that rates are coming down soon, this one is worth a listen.
• The Fed is holding rates because the economy does not need stimulus right now. Unemployment is low and inflation is still running above target. Cutting rates in that environment would add fuel to a fire that has not gone out. The political pressure to cut may be strong, but the economic case for it is not there yet.
• Inflation is more connected to global events than most people realize. The war in Iran is pushing energy costs higher, and energy feeds into the price of nearly everything else. What looks like a foreign policy story is also a personal finance story.
• The government's debt load makes this moment especially complicated. Interest costs on the national debt are already ballooning at current rates. Keeping rates elevated for too long compounds that problem. But cutting too soon risks letting inflation run further. Meghan and Chris both believe the most likely long-term path is to inflate the debt away gradually rather than address it through austerity.
• Inflation is a slow tax on anyone who is not invested. If your money is sitting in cash over the long term, its purchasing power is shrinking every year. Stocks, real estate, gold, and short-term private credit are among the tools Meghan and Chris discuss for staying ahead of it.
• Do not make financial decisions based on a bet that rates will come down. Both hosts push back on the widespread assumption in real estate and lending circles that refinancing is just around the corner. The range of possible outcomes is wider than most people are planning for.
0:00 – Cold open: the Fed holds rates and hints at future hikes
0:51 – Welcome and today's headline: why the Fed won't lower interest rates
1:28 – Why the new Fed chair surprised everyone with his rate stance
2:47 – Inflation pressures and the geopolitical factors tying it all together
3:51 – Why cutting rates right now would be the wrong move
5:14 – How interest rates and inflation actually work together
6:11 – The national debt problem: could the government be letting inflation run on purpose?
7:53 – What individuals can do to protect themselves from inflation
9:04 – Real-world examples of inflation: In-N-Out, Costco, and a Father's Day card
10:53 – Stocks, real estate, and gold as long-term inflation hedges
12:49 – Why staying flexible with short-term bonds beats locking in long-term
14:13 – Closing take: don't make big financial decisions betting on rates coming down
Why is the Fed not cutting interest rates?
The Fed is holding rates because economic conditions do not justify a cut. Unemployment remains low and inflation is still elevated, in part because energy prices are being pushed higher by the war in Iran. Cutting rates in this environment would risk adding more pressure to inflation rather than relieving it. The new Fed chair, who was selected partly because of his willingness to hold firm on rates, is choosing to wait rather than act prematurely.
How does inflation affect everyday spending?
Inflation shows up in small ways that add up quickly. A greeting card that cost two dollars a couple of years ago now runs eight or nine. A fast food dinner for four costs seventy dollars. A tank of gas takes a meaningful chunk out of a paycheck. For households with assets and investments, these are annoyances. For households without them, rising prices on necessities can be genuinely destabilizing. That gap is what both Chris and Meghan point to as one of the longer-term risks of a sustained inflationary environment.
What happens to the national debt if interest rates stay high?
The interest cost on the national debt is already large and grows larger the longer rates stay elevated. Even without any new spending, the government goes deeper into debt simply because the cost of servicing existing debt keeps compounding. Meghan describes this as a tipping point the country has already passed, where even a serious political commitment to austerity would struggle to make a meaningful dent in the numbers.
What is the best way to protect money from inflation?
The core principle Meghan and Chris return to is that money left in cash loses purchasing power over time. Staying invested in real assets, stocks with pricing power, short-term private credit, or inflation-linked instruments gives a better chance of keeping up with rising prices over the long term. The goal is not necessarily aggressive growth. It is making sure that what you have today still buys roughly the same things in ten or twenty years.
Should I wait for interest rates to come down before making financial decisions?
Both Chris and Meghan caution against building a financial plan around the assumption that rates will fall. Rates might come down. They might also stay flat or go higher. Making major decisions like buying real estate or locking into long-term bonds based on a single predicted outcome is a form of concentrated risk. The better approach is scenario planning: making sure your financial position holds up across a range of possible outcomes rather than depending on one.
Why is the Fed under political pressure to cut rates?
The Trump administration has been vocal about wanting lower rates, which would reduce borrowing costs and tend to stimulate economic activity. The new Fed chair was seen as a potentially hawkish pick, which made his early suggestion that rates should come down somewhat surprising. The tension Meghan describes is that the political case for lower rates is real, but the economic conditions do not currently support it. Inflation and energy price pressures have backed the Fed into a position where cutting now would be hard to justify on the data alone.
The assumption that interest rates will come down soon is embedded in a lot of financial planning conversations right now. Homeowners expecting to refinance, bond buyers locking in at current yields, and businesses pricing credit on the assumption that borrowing gets cheaper. If that assumption turns out to be wrong, the consequences ripple outward in ways that are worth thinking through now rather than after the fact.
At Morton Wealth, one of the most important things we do is help clients stress test their plans against outcomes they are not currently expecting. If interest rates, inflation, or energy prices are creating uncertainty in your financial picture, that is exactly the kind of conversation we are here for.
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Disclosures: Information presented herein is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and is not intended to constitute financial advice. The views and opinions expressed by the speakers are as of the date of the recording and are subject to change. These views are not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, and should not be relied on as financial, tax, or legal advice. You should consult with your finance professional, accountant, or tax professional before implementing any transactions or strategies concerning your finances.
